Adaptation to Climate Change

We investigate the effect of climate change on population growth in 18th and 19th century Iceland. We find that annual temperature changes help determine the population growth rate in preindustrial Iceland: a year 1◦C cooler than average drives down population growth rates by 0.57% in each of the next two years, for a total effect of 1.14%. We also find that 18th and 19th century Icelanders adapt to prolonged changes in climate: these adaptations take about 20 years and reduce the short run effect of annual change in temperature by about 60%. Finally, we find that a 1◦C sustained decrease in temperature decreases the steady state population by 10% to 26%. We argue that our results may provide some information about the effects that future global warming will have on poor populations in warmer countries.